Longer days and Winter doldrums

I write this on 24 December, and I am really looking forward to longer days.

Today at GM4FVM sunset is scheduled for 15:37. That makes for a day length of 6 hours and 59 minutes. I should grateful for the two seconds we have gained since 22 December, but I prefer to think about the hours we will gain in future months.

Why does this matter to amateur radio? Well, the energy which causes ionisation comes from the Sun. The longer the Sun shines each day the more ionisation. Some features we rely on need a lot of energy, so F- and E- layer propagation usually occurs at times of longer day length. Cross Equatorial propagation modes benefit from balanced day length on each side of the equator and thus they tend to happen mostly at the equinoxes, whereas DX within the northern or southern hemisphere usually occur at times of longer day length nearer the summer solstice.

And not much happens in the winter.

Of course these are generalisations. Today on 50MHz there has been a short burst of "Winter Es", sporadic E propagation which often occurs around the Winter Solstice, i.e. roughly around Christmas.

50MHz contacts at GM4FVM on 24 December 2023

Not bad for just over an hour and a half of work. 10 QSOs to 9 squares, best DX 9A2DI in JN95 at 1870km. The trick is to watch out for this type of propagation sometime during December and January, so an hour and a half is not quite correct. I have been waiting for a few weeks now.

Then, later on 24 December, there was a Trans-Atlantic opening on 6m which missed GM4FVM almost entirely. I heard K9RX and that was it, apart from seeing weighty amateurs further west working a stream of stations along the Eastern coast of USA and into the Caribbean. You win some and you lose some.

Of course there are VHF propagation modes which are not affected by the season. Usually on 144MHz and above we have a series of passing high pressure systems which produce tropospheric propagation, plus the odd aurora for the lower bands.

Here is my 144MHz map since 12 October 2023. As usual click to enlarge images if necessary.

144MHz contacts at GM4FVM, 13 October to 24 December 2023

This does not look too bad for 2m, until you consider that it took 69 days to achieve it. In fact, it looked a lot worse until in one day I worked two French stations and EA1U in IN83 at 1389km who was the best DX. The other 68 days were very uneventful save for 5 November. On that day an aurora brought M5AGY, G4ILI, G0JDL, G4MCU and (best DX) G4XDZ in JO01 at 544km. All five contacts were over 400km. 

That aurora brought me on to SSB, a mode I seem to have lost the knack to operate. Although those 5 were on 2m, I also worked Gerry GI4OWA on 6m. I failed entirely to recognise him. It is now so unusual for me to hear callsigns spoken that the old familiar ones no longer trigger my memories. Ah, the joys of data modes.

Perhaps I should add that my hearing is not great. I gave up on the aurora after a station called me repeatedly and I simply could not decipher their callsign. I could blame this on my advanced old age, but to be honest I have never been good at decoding distorted SSB or even CW during an aurora.

Anyway, if you subtract those two days, the one tropo opening and the one aurora, 2m activity has been pretty woeful. The usual passage of weather systems has just brought a variety of low pressures, followed by lower pressure systems. The one extended period of high pressure (when I worked EA1U) was accompanied by strong winds which pretty well cancelled out the whole enhanced propagation. High pressure and strong winds - frustrating.

70cm was worse.

432MHz contacts at GM4FVM, 13 October to 24 December 2023

7 QSOs in 69 days. Best DX was to F4FET in JO00 at 627km. Although I have worked Gil on 2m, that was a new callsign for me on 70cm, also worked during the one high pressure period, despite the wind.

Now I have to make this point clear. All the contacts, even the local ones, are welcome. However, rarely have I experienced such dire conditions on the higher VHF bands. Usually I can rely on a nice stable (and not windy) high pressure to settle over the North Sea during this period of the year. My usually reliable contacts into Denmark have not happened so far this Winter. 

23cms was even worse again. I was away during the November activity contest but I came on for the December one. And during that 23cm contest I heard nothing. Even the NGI beacon could not be decoded. I did hear the Central Scotland beacon in Kilsyth, but could not decode it. Conditions were absolutely dire.

There seems to be another issue. I suspect that the novelty of FT8 on 2m has passed, and now only DX-ers turn it on. That means that there is only activity when conditions are good, and that was at no time during those 69 days. Quite a few of the contacts I did have were on SSB during activity contests. Sad to relate, many GM stations seem to have given up on UK Activity contests as they tell me that they have no hope of winning or even doing well.

So there you have it. I hope that we have reached the bottom of a long decline on the higher VHF/UHF bands, and hopefully longer days will bring better conditions on the lower VHF bands. I cannot be sure of a high pressure system coming along soon, but I can be reasonably sure that the day length will steadily increase, for a six months or so anyway.

Have a Merry Christmas and see you all soon.

73 Jim

GM4FVM