I wince every time I hear someone call the six metre band "the magic band". This is a scientific hobby, and magic means affected by supernatural forces (or supernatual beings!). I am pretty sure that the only things which affect the 50MHz band are natural forces.
Sorry to be a spoilsport, but using an incorrect term just infantalises our hobby. It is for us to try to understand the scientific way propagation works on all bands including this one. Just to kick the whole thing into the long grass but putting it down to magic risks radio amateurs looking stupid. Are we becoming lazy and not looking for the reasons why this wonderful band behaves the way it does? I doubt if governments who spend millions on attending conferences and lobbying to preserve amateur radio privileges would appreciate us throwing 50MHz propagation into the bin marked "magic".
Do I know the reason for specific openings on 6m? No, of course not, but I am willing to put a bit of thought into what I see happening.
On 5 October 2026 I was sitting at the radio hoping for an opening on 6m. I do not usually do that during October. I was warned in advance about this as I had seen on SolarHam that a coronal hole had spat charged particles into space and some was expected to come our way. On days when this is predicted I am hoping for a Kp number of about 3 or 4.
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| SolarHam update, 4 October 2026 |
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| 6m contacts at GM4FVM on 5 October 2026 (Image ADIF to Karte) |
Apart from two other days when solar activity was predicted when I worked a total of three stations, I have worked nothing on 50MHz outside the UK since 30 August. Nobody worked for 32 days of normal conditions, then 24 stations in a day, then back to nothing. Quite an opening. Magic? That would be a handy way of hiding it from any further investigation. I do not think the 5 October opening was due to magic.
These contacts were clearly "Sporadic E" (Es). They had the clear signs of Es such as considerable strength and they were all within about 2200km. Another Es characteristic was that the propagation moved around, first covering Italy and San Marino, then adding Spain and then after I returned from shopping, Eastern Europe with Italy still present. Best DX for me was 2027km to YU7EF in KN04KT
I saw no opening on 70MHz though there were a few contacts further south of me. I did see Es contacts on 28MHz at the same time covering similar parts of the world.
Most amateurs are probably familiar with Sporadic E. It happens every year during the summer and covers amateur bands from below 28MHz to 144MHz. During about four months in the summer each year we see Es happening regularly without watching for solar events. This year it was definitely over on 50MHz by the end of August. Summer Es does not happen in October.
There is a widely accepted model for how Es works, and that explanation does not involve charged particles from the sun ...
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| Proposed Sporadic E explanation (retrieved from old FVM blog) |
That explanation explains successfully why Es happens independently of the solar cycle - this process relies upon ionisation which takes place when meteors enter the atmosphere and a slowed by the atmosphere, providing all the energy required for ionisation. The arrival of large quantities of tiny "random" meteors happens all year and is fairly even in quantity (meteor showers by comparison provide only a small portion of this material for most of the year).
The general understanding of all this is that this "wind shear" explanation depends on seasonal factors. The seasons are driven by the Sun's heat so of course Es is so common during summer. Apart from the peak days of summer, it only happens during the local daytime.
So far so good. Under this explanation Summer Es does not depend on charged particles from the Sun thus does not depend on Solar Wind, the Solar Cycle or anything similar. Then what explains the 5 October 2026 opening, and others like it, which do seem to be related to solar activity?
I can be fairly sure that something is going to happen during the winter when SolarHam predicts charged particles are streaming our way. What I cannot know is if the polarity of these particles is suitable to create an opening on 6m. Sometimes I strike lucky, and sometimes I get nothing. Sometimes the particles shoot past and miss the Earth. We cannot make more than an approximation of the speed of the particles as they leave the Sun, the size of the ejection, nor their complex angular velocity, so the predictions can be wrong. But I have seen enough of these events to be fairly certain that when Es happens during the winter months it is often related to solar activity, and I can be warned of that in advance by a raised K number predicted on SolarHam.
The wind shear explanation has been professionally tested and I am sure that explains Summer Es. I might add that I am unsure if the wind shear explanation accounts for the sudden dramatic opening on 5 October and others like it, nor "Winter Es" (often wrongly called "Christmas Es"), nor the Europe-Japan openings in high summer, nor "Polar Es", nor "Auroral Es". In short, it seems to me that there may be more factors at play producing refraction in the E layer than just the wind shear theory. And I can be pretty sure that some openings that get put down as "Es" are definitely of an entirely different origin, such as long period ionisation which can happen during extremely strong meteor showers. I think it might have different causes, but it all looks like the same old "Sporadic E".
I wonder are there possibly several processes happening which are all lumped together by hams under one heading. Just because we amateurs see the characteristic Es type opening maybe we then categorise them all together as "Sporadic E". Sure, all the propagation happens in the E layer, has a maximum path on a single hop of about 2200km, it all moves around, covers small areas at the DX end, etc. However, that does not mean that they are all caused by the same mechanism.
Specifically, these winter openings seem to me to coincide with solar events. Can that be coincidence? I doubt it. I have followed this possible link for over ten years. One theory which has been suggested to me is that the arrival of charged particles into the E layer gives enough extra energy to cause ionisation and trigger Es. That sounds quite plausible, but does it happen by an entirely different mechanism to the wind shear theory? I personally cannot see that increased solar activity would influence the wind shear mechanism which would otherwise be asleep over the winter months.
So the conclusion is, I don't know. Still, I am not inclined to let this go without giving it some thought. When SolarHam predicts a coronal hole or a mass ejection during the winter months I will be ready on 6m. I cannot be certain though, as only a K number of about 3 or 4 is likely to work. If the stream misses us then the number will be too low, and if it is strong and hits Earth squarely the K number will be 5 or more and an aurora will strip out ionised particles and prevent any Es. Still, an aurora is good in other ways, and as it calms down you often get Auroral Es which is another benefit.
I cannot see how the wind shear theory explains a day like 5 October. I cannot see how it explains Winter Es and all that type of propagation either.
I can say something with a fair degree of certainly:- IT IS NOT MAGIC THAT DOES THIS.
73 Jim (disappearing in a puff of magic ionised dust)
GM4FVM
























