Friday, 26 February 2016

More about X-Rays and Es.

OK, OK, I said I would not do this to death even more that I already have. But ...

... this post (link below) seems to have got people talking. Or at least e-mailing me.

That was about a month ago, but regular readers (poor souls) will know that I do tend to go on about this.

Right, after various enquries I decided to carry on with my researches for another 4 weeks, one week of which has now passed.

And what have I found?

1) That on days with no X-Ray peaks there was no Es.
2) On days when there were X-Ray peaks, there were 10 metre band Es openings within an hour of the peak
3) When there was a sudden big peak the opening extended to 6 metres
4) Between 09:00 and 15:00 the openings were here in GM, after 15:00 they were in North America.

This is not a just a week's findings. This is confirmation of months of observations.

It started when I was watching for signs of likely aurora. I noticed that raised solar activity was associated with Es, but if it was really powerful it caused an aurora instead. I watched it for months before mentioning it here and to Tim Kirby, the VHF columnist of Practical Wireless magazine. Tim reported it enthusiastically. Then people started to get interested and the e-mails started flying.

Since then I have narrowed it down to watching some pretty specific numbers for X-Ray flux within certain wavelengths defined by specific bands. I do not totally believe the DX cluster as it has many false positive and false negative results. However, I can usually find these and exclude them. Otherwise I am checking it out using WSPR.

I am not suggesting that, if it is true, that this relationship proves that X-rays cause Es. Far from it. Es are caused by all sorts of factors. What I am doing is presenting the findings and leaving it to others. However, I do think it is possible that, given the presence of Es conditions with an MUF lower than, say, 28MHz, a spike in X-Rays flux could raise the MUF enough for me to notice. Or possibly the two are just related rather than being cause and effect - though I have considered and rejected several things which trend the same way as the X-Rays.

As for the details of what I am observing, that will have to wait. Too dense to post up on a blog. However, I will write it up in due course. If you look back in my blog you can see what sort of things I have been watching in the past.

I cannot say more now because the observations are taking AGES. I am making observations for 6 hours per day, every day I can. It is REALLY time consuming. So more later.

In the meantime, here are some details for those who believe that Es is a Summer phenomenon (and who reading this blog can think that?)  ...

If you sense a different tone in this posting, so do I. I am finding this all a bit of a chore. This is supposed to be a hobby. It doesn't feel like that just at the moment. I feel more like a post-grad student up against some kind of a research deadline.



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