OK, from here to Brazil or Australia is not really Sporadic Es, but todays 10m contacts were LARGELY European Es.
It has taken 5 days for 10 metres to return to more or less normal. After the 17 March CME there were a couple of days of more or less blackout, but now we have the Europeans. Note, no stations from US or Canada, who I would normally expect around now.
So when can I expect any VHF Sporadic E?
It takes more ionisation of the E layer for Es on VHF than 10m - obviously. That means VHF Es here is a "Summer" event. Maybe nearer to the Equator it happens most of the year, but up here in chilly 56 degrees North we have to wait for either Summer or some odd event (such as the so-called "Christmas Es", which usually happen in January). (?).
Looking back in my log is not very accurate. Some years I am on holiday, sometimes I am doing something else. But here are the dates of the arrival of VHF Es here for the past few years:--
24 May S51DI JN76 1618km - 70MHz FM.
9 May F9IE IN86 991km - 50MHz
9 May CT1QP IM58 1969km - 70Mhz
2 May IK0FTA JN61 1878km 70MHz
24 April I5XX JN53 1661km - 50Mhz
1 May IS0AWZ JM49 2022km - 70MHz
8 May OH6WD KP23 1760km - 50MHz
10May SP2JYB JO92 1387km - 70Mhz
Where the 6m one was first then I listed the 4m to see how much later it was (if at all). I do not think that 2010 is very representative as my transverter was away for repair and I did not have a 6m antenna up. However, FM signals do quite well on Es so it might say something, if only how badly prepared I was in 2010.
So, I might expect 6m Es in about 4 weeks (late April on), and 4m Es in about 6 weeks time (early May).
Time to get the 6m antenna up. I have been working on it, but I need to step on the gas.